Last month, before the U.S. tariffs went into effect, I wrote a piece called: “Will tariffs help or hurt the U.S. Economy?” The TLDR synopsis was: yes, tariffs will cause short-term pain, but if executed wisely, the strategy could yield lasting fruit.
Politically, it’s a serious gamble. One that could cost the Republicans the presidency in 2028. It will likely cost them the House in 2026. Regardless, if tariffs are so risky, why try them?
Revitalizing America’s Manufacturing
The American populist movement, which saw a win last November, ran on a platform of reigniting America’s manufacturing infrastructure. Why? Because American workers, who have historically relied on manufacturing jobs, have lost out on employment opportunities. But when did this decline begin?
Point to the height of U.S. offshoring in the 1970s and 80s. The logic? If companies could reduce costs and increase efficiency, U.S. consumers would benefit from cheaper goods and greater buying power. But we have to ask, was it worth it?
According to Forbes, approximately 300,000 American jobs [are] being outsourced annually. Senior contributor, Jack Kelly, writes:
“… from 1998 to 2020, the American manufacturing sector witnessed a significant downturn… which saw more than 5 million jobs and nearly 70,000 factories vanish.”
Plus, “There has been a noticeable shift in the job market toward service-sector positions, which typically offer lower wages, fewer benefits and reduced unionization rates compared to their manufacturing counterparts. This transition has significantly impacted workers without college degrees, who previously could access middle-class lifestyles through well-compensated manufacturing jobs with comprehensive benefits.”
Ultimately, the current administration’s goal is to reverse this trend. But bringing back industries that have shifted overseas won’t be easy. This practice has been going on for over 60 years. It’s not like this transition back to self-sufficiency won’t be painless.
An Uphill Battle
In short, the current administration faces an enormous task. Without public patience, the tariff and trade negotiation strategy could backfire. However, what really is the alternative?
American optimism is at historic lows. Many parents don’t believe their children will have the same opportunities they did. According to reports, Baby Boomers now hold the vast majority of wealth, far more than Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z combined.
The offshoring of manufacturing jobs took decades. To believe this problem will be solved in one administration is naive. In my view, the current administration is playing a dangerous game. If successful, it could become a brilliant political win. But if it fails, the consequences could be devastating.